Ethereum’s upcoming 4GB DAG Event, bigger than we’re expecting?
By Theodor Ghannam on The Capital
When Ethereum Launched with Eth-Hash algorithm the DAG was added as a way to deter ASIC manufacture by increasing the memory requirements needed to run. In late 2016 we saw it’s first real effect when 2GB GPUs stopped mining on the blockchain around Epoch #93 when DAG reached 1.75GB. In Early 2019, we saw GTX1060 3GB’s fall-off on April 24, when the DAG reached 2.85GB at Epoch #230. These events were minor as most miners bought 4GB Graphics cards such as R390/290s, RX470s, Furys, and Nvidia GPUs with 4GB+ Vram.
As we know ASICs were launched in 2018 from Bitmain and Innosilicion. Interestingly enough everyone was hoping that PoS “Just around the corner” even the ASIC manufacturers believed this and designed there ASICs accordingly. Leading them to design only 4GB ETH-Hash ASICs, with a recent launch only from Innosilicon with 5GB ASICs.
The next major DAG event is approaching us this at the near the end of 2020, with all 4GB graphics cards falling off around 11/30/2020 at Epoch 380. How big is this event? We won’t get a full scope till it happens but According to Song Xuejian, an ETH miner and CMO of cloud mining provider Beesbit, 4GB GPU mining rigs, which currently account for more than 60% of Ethereum hashrate, will be unable to mine this August (https://news.8btc.com/) I suspect this to be true. Getting Statics from HiveOS over 50% of AMD GPUs that mine on Hive are 4GB.
On the HiveOS platform, AMD makes up close to 60% of all GPUs.
Over the ProgPoW debate, Leigh Minehan estimates that up to 40% of Ethereum’s hash rate may come from ASIC mining equipment. Currently, all ASICs are 4GBs, which have been patched to last till Epoch reaches close to 4GB.
Bitmain has said:
“As far as we know, mining will approximately end during October or sometime after this. This is the latest firmware update developed for the Antminer E3. Currently, we have not made any plans to develop future updates at the moment.”
I suspect between August and November we’ll slowly see hashrate decrease because of this we can expect a 50% drop in current Ethereum hashrate.
As an aside, there was some push to limit the DAG, but EIP 1043 has since been closed. There’s still talk of ProgPoW, which would completely kick-off ASICs, however seeing as there has been a misunderstanding, bad PR, I fully expect it to not be implemented.
What does this mean for miners?
The current Ethereum network hashrate is 180Th/s
The current difficulty is 2.4Ph. The network itself adjusts difficulty in such a way that the difficulty/nethash = block time (Avg Ethereum block times are 13.3s)
A 60% drop (180 x .60) results in a 108Th/s. Going off historical figures, last time Ethereum was at 100Th/s network hashrate, around Nov 2017 after Iceage delayed, the network Difficulty rested at 1.5Ph.
What would this mean for miners with 8GB cards? Increased profits for possibly a short-time or longer time. We’re not talking 3-month ROI haydays of 2017–2018 crypto-goldrush, but it’s definitely going to be a nice time for those already in the game with the right equipment.
Factoring little price changes in the coming months, currently, a single 6-GPU RX470 rig makes .45 Eth a month. netting $37 a month after an average residential electric rate of .10 Cents.
This will increase to .65 Eth a month netting $92 a month after an average residential electric rate of .10 Cents. While not a significant increase in Ethereum it will result in a 40% increase in USD made(as of 7/10/2020).
The question is will this bring on the next onslaught of speculative miners seeking to jump into Ethereum Mining again as in 2017?
My personal theory is, No. Unless for one factor, the Price of Ethereum once again shoots to all-time-highs, either doubles or achieves the last ATH of $1400 once again.
Personally I think anyone already invested into PoW mining early this year or previous years will enjoy a brief period of good Ethereum mining until July 2021 when the Iceage is once again set to deploy and Blocktimes reach up to 20s +.
Again this pure speculation assuming a majority of factors like how much of the network is based on 4GB. We won’t know the full effects till the end of years when these GPUs and ASICs fall off the network.
Sources
https://2miners.com/blog/when-will-my-graphics-card-stop-mining-ether/
https://2miners.com/blog/ethereum-mining-with-gtx-1060-3gb-cards-stopped-mining-eth-etc/
https://ethereum.stackexchange.com/questions/1880/how-is-the-mining-difficulty-calculated-on-ethereum
https://news.8btc.com/ethereum-hashrate-may-see-50-drop-as-4gb-gpu-stop-mining-eth-in-q4-2020
https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/ervh1t/question_about_dag_size_and_mining_in_2021/
